Is This REALLY Gonna Happen? You Tell Me……

I apologize up front for the length of this post BUT I hope my efforts here will help shed a little light, on what may or may not be true, in relation to the value of OUR INVESTMENT in the Iraqi Dinar. I want to emphasize the term “OUR INVESTMENT” because I OWN DINAR too.

I am not what you might consider an “old timer” in this investment. In fact, I have owned my Dinar for less than a year. I made my first purchase in November of 2009 because a friend suggested I do so, quickly. Normally I do not JUMP into anything but I was convinced that he might be right; so I made my purchase.

I think, in the effort of full disclosure, I should at least throw my “qualifications” out there, for speaking on the Dinar, before you read any further.

I am not a currency trader nor am I an investment advisor. I was however, a registered representative (stock broker – Series 7 – fully licensed by the Fed and the State of Texas) for 6 1/2 years. I was an ACTIVE broker (managing client accounts, making stock recommendations, executing buy and sell orders, and researching prospective opportunities for my clients) for the first 4 of those years. To put it in simpler terms, I was a “Bud Fox” (Like in the movie Wall Street). No, I never got to sleep with Daryl Hannah (a chick – for those that don’t know) but then, nobody’s perfect. ;)

As you can see, I am NOT a currency specialist; nor do I play one on tv. But what I do posses, is the mind of someone who understands markets and securities. I am not making the claim of being a financial guru or that I am even qualified (in the most astute sense of the word) to tell you guys what to do with your money. Cash, whether it be the USD, the IQD, the EURO, or the Peso are considered “securities.” And as such, their values fluctuate on the most basic of financial principles; “supply and demand.” For those of you that would like to read up on how a central bank controls the value of their respective nation’s money supply, I would suggest you google the purpose of a central bank.

So without further delay, let’s just dive right into this……

We have all been told that 25 Trillion Iraqi Dinar were printed. Of that amount, we have no way of knowing how much of that currency the Central Bank of Iraq still holds in it’s liability column. Or, how much of that cash is in the hands of the global public.

As of 2010, the population of Iraq is approximately 31,234,000.
http://www.trueknowl…of_iraq_in_2010
So we have a nation of people who’s population totals a little over 31 million, who’s central bank originally had 25 trillion of their dollars (dinars) printed for circulation.

Now let’s compare that to a country like, oh I don’t know……The United States. Probably a good place to start since their money is pegged to our dollar.

As of 2010, the population of the United States is approximately 305,689,000

And as shown below, we currently have 1,132,337 Trillion dollars (real currency) in circulation. Of course the Fed (Federal Reserve) is on the hook for much more than hard currency but that’s another discussion altogether.

12. Collateral Held against Federal Reserve Notes: Federal Reserve Agents’ Accounts
Millions of dollars

Wednesday Aug 4, 2010

Federal Reserve notes outstanding: 1,132,337

http://www.federalre…es/h41/current/

So let’s compare:

Iraqi population of 31.2 million
US population of 305.6 million

Iraqi currency 25 trillion with no proof that ALL of it is NOT in circulation
US currency in circulation 1.13 trillion

Let’s think about this for a minute………we have 305.6 million Americans that are fighting for their share of 1.13 trillion worth of cash. LET ME STATE THAT I UNDERSTAND THE BASICS OF FRACTIONAL RESERVE BANKING so I know that “wealth” is not represented in the currency supply OR the amount of money an entity may have in the bank. So for illustrative purposes let’s focus on the marketability of the currency alone. We have a supply for a market and a demand for the equity on that security. Not only are American’s vying for the dollar, but other nations are as well. (SUPPLY AND DEMAND)

Contrast this with Iraq:

We have a nation of 31.2 million Iraqis that are fighting for their share of 25 trillion worth of cash. We have a supply for a market and a demand for the equity on that security. At this point, the only REAL demand for that equity is created by the 31.2 million Iraqis. Other than travelers and speculators (like us) there isn’t much demand internationally. Thus, the whole point of bringing the IQD to the international markets.

Now I ask you this…..

Does it make sense that a currency, without much marketability, would maintain it’s current level of supply, and hit the international market at a 3 to 1 ratio to one of the most valuable currencies on the market?

Wouldn’t it make more sense to reduce the currency supply before bringing the currency to the international market?

Look, I know that this line of thinking, or reason, is frowned upon by those who are hoping to become millionaires overnight. And the last thing that I want to do is trash people’s dreams of this giant windfall that WE ARE ALL hoping for. (I own IQD as well)

But is it possible that there is a “plan” in place that ISN’T exactly what WE are all hoping for??

I already know the counter arguments to this and I know that the BIG thing people like point out is the “low rate of inflation” in Iraq. But what does that REALLY mean?

Well, the definition of “inflation” is: The rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and, subsequently, purchasing power is falling.
http://www.investope…i/inflation.asp

So when someone points out that inflation in Iraq is “under control” or “low”, what they are saying is that the prices of goods and services are increasing, annually, at a low rate. The problem with this argument is that the ridiculous amount of currency needed to purchase goods and services in Iraq is still WAY out of line when compared to non-third world nations. I mean come on; it takes 40-50 of US currency to take the family out to dinner on a Friday night. In Iraq it takes 40,000 – 50,000 of THEIR currency for the same meal. So the nominal value of their currency, while common place in Iraq, is in no way representative of a currency holding any REAL value. That’s why it takes SO MUCH OF IT to purchase goods and services in Iraq.

When people talk about the historical value of the Iraqi Dinar, they like to point out the rate prior to Sadam’s reign. And that rate may have been a legitimate valuation of the currency at that time. BUT….what was the country’s population and how much currency was available to the market? I can almost promise you that BOTH figures are dramatically smaller than what we are seeing today.

Look, I am not here to bash hopes and dreams. I am not here to cause discontent and I am not here to dissuade folks from doing what they want to do with their money. All I am trying to do is put forth reasonable posits that MUST be considered by EVERY PERSON, that owns Iraqi Dinar.

Now I know that MANY will respond negatively to this post and I am ok with that. I am merely sharing the thoughts, questions, and reservations that I have in relation to OUR INVESTMENT.

Thanks for reading…………..

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17 Comments

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17 responses to “Is This REALLY Gonna Happen? You Tell Me……

  1. Cally Underwood

    Believe it or not, my brain was thinking in the direction of exactly what you are saying, but I couldn’t have organized my thoughts and said it in a million years. Thanks for reading my mind. My 100,000 dinar will make a good souvenir (and, $130 is not too bad for a souvenir) and a wonderful conversation piece…think I will frame it and hang it on the wall. ;o)

  2. Frank

    I completely understand your concerns…What you have failed to really consider is the global nature of an this oil rich economy. The IQD is not pegged to the value of the USD, rather it is pegged to the futures or value/revenues of what the country can eventually produce. Also, the dollar is pegged to the U.S. not because of any fancy by- products or offerings, but origianally, by our primarliy Christian humble beginnings via those vested; ” IN GOD WE TRUST”!

    Can we also say those words about the Iraqi people and their currency…? In all honesty…I believe that answer to be YES!…granted; it will not be as a result of the Judaic values or the Judeo Christiandom of the “GOD” of America, but rather via their Muslim associatations relevant to their practices of “GOD” and the “TRUST” that is placed in that trust in a thought process.

    A currency of any GOD fearing nation is derived matter-of -factly by the “TRUST” a nation puts in it’s ultimate provider; GOD. Therefore as long as this TRUST vies, a nation can place or pledge any value it desires on it’s currency; and percentages or relationships really have zero meaning.

    Whereas, the USD since Nixon, no longer is pegged to Gold, should be statement enough; that you would understand!

    Also, of mention, keep in mind it was not Gold, or the gold standard that won WWII but the lack of “OIL” that kept most from Sprechen Sie Deutsch today!

    Always remember, GOD is our ultimate provider and it is in HIM we should always give thanks for this provision…so…Keep the faith!

    Also, in terms of realtionships, keep in mind, the Roman economic system which grew Rome to the epitone of World Global Stability, florished best primiarily when it was NOT affixed to a system of Gold or backing..or percentages….but rather by it’s “Trust” in its laws, people and system of self governance via it’s enevitable trust in a just God.

    The RV MUST happen to pay for the libertation of Iraq…It is RIGHT-IT IS JUST!

  3. rt

    jeeze dinarded… you’ve got F26 himself dropping off an essay on your site. supposedly Sunday’s the day, huh?

  4. DinarSkeptic

    So, it is now January, and I have done very little reading about the Dinar RV. I do know at least a handfull of people that are “invested” and have a great hope in the RV of the Dinar. I have several questions: 1. How long have people been waiting for this to happen and how many “tomorrow is the day” have we heard? 2. If this currency isn’t marketable, where will all the people exchange thier dinar for the US dollar? 3. Where are some legitimate reputable sites that can shed some light on how many NIQD there really are in circulation? 4. Has anyone been to Iraq to see what is going on there and what excitement is being said amongst the locals? I have very many more questions, but it would help if these were answered. Thanks for all the posts, they are informative at the very least.

    • First, I would like to state that I like your name “DinarSkeptic.” This “investment” is definitely one to be skeptical of. I will try and answer your questions to the best of my ability.

      1.) Many people have been waiting for 6-7 years now. From what I have found, “tomorrow is the day” has been the common line since the beginning.

      2.) Once a currency becomes an “International Currency” it is freely traded on the open currency exchange. IF the IQD reaches the international market, you can exchange it at almost ANY local bank.

      3.) The number of IQD in circulation is a highly contested debate throughout the dinar community. I have yet to see a source that I would consider “reliable.”

      4.) There are several people that a currently in Iraq and many more that have already returned. The typical response from those in Iraq is quite different from what we hear from the “guru’s” of the dinar web. The excitement and high expectations of ‘any moment now’ doesn’t exist. At least not from those that I have had contact with. The people of Iraq know, or think they know, that their currency will eventually be worth MORE one day; they just don’t believe that day is right around the corner.

      Thanks for your post!

  5. Lea

    1: Since the new dinar was introduced in 2003- but we all knew that it could not revalue with no strong government in place and the UN Sanctions firmly in place…both of these are almost complete.
    2: When it revalues it will be more marketable…currently it is buying and selling through Chase Bank in the US as well as a few reputable online dealers like dinarbanker.com…also you will be able to exchange it via these same places once revalued….you can buy and sell right now…it may take other banks a little time to get up to speed once revalued but any airport currency exchange office will have the ability.
    3: Would like to know that myself…:)
    4: I have not been there personally so will not comment on what locals have to say but there is a lot of excitement from friends of mine that were there in the past month. According to them a few more things have to be done before revalue…final cabinet seats filled and approved as well as dealings with Kuwait regarding debt. It may be quick or it may be another 6 months when the last of the US troops leave but it shouldn’t be more than another year and may be as quick as next week.

  6. Economic Reasoning

    WOW, this is truely amazing. This investment in the Dinar is a HIGH RISK, HIGH REWARD that if you had the opportunity to own it before the possible RV, you will be extremely happy, but on the back side if it doesn’t RV you will just have played the game and still be able to get your money back minus the fees.

    There are only a couple of outcomes possible.
    1) The currency doesnt RV due to IRAQ’s economy not producing the “resources” we actually sent our troops over to defend. (WAR doesnt equal MONEY)
    2)The currency Revalues but only to a point to where the zero’s on the exchange rates are dropped. Thus still giving you a positive return on your investment but not a great one. (WAR does equaly MONEY)
    3)The currency Revalues at a rate that defends its resources at a population per capita analysis.

    The reason IRAQ was invaded because of its countries natural resources not its weapons of mass destruction. The country has taken on a new economic look as an Arab democratic. The country of IRAQ is resting on the World’s largest oil reserves and as long a we as a WORLD are dependent on oil, their will be a demand for IRAQ’s natural resources, which includes natural gas, that will make it’s currency extremely more marketable and profitable for the ones who own it.

    Look at what the US did to JAPAN and how we bomb the shit out of them, then built them back up to an economy that we now trade and depend on. The same will happen with IRAQ. For those who dont agree I dont know what to say other than read some history about war and economics, before and after. Its inevitable, about the currency revaluing…..when and where rest on the powers that be!

    In summary, the world invaded IRAQ to get a piece of that ASS, so to speak, and not unless we are no longer dependant on oil will the Dinar not be valuable. Sadam was greedy on his oil production, you better believe more oil will be produced out of that region now since CAPITALISM has invested in IRAQ. So many compaines have been apart of the rebuilding of IRAQ, for one reason only…….TO GET PAID!!!!!

  7. DinarSkeptic

    What are the possibilities of RVing and only letting a limited amount of people, for example Iraqi citizens and residents of nearby countries, exchange the currency? I feel that once revalued, there might be some restrictions on who can cash in on it. Any thoughts on that? I didn’t know anyone “invaded” Iraq. Unless you are talking about the US. I didn’t know it was in the plan to benefit monetarily from the “terrorist intervention”. Were there others that were invading Iraq? Maybe I need to pay more attention to the events over there and the intentions of other countries. What are the necessities that still need to be accomplished in order for the RV to happen. I have read that the government is partially set up, but some members still need to be appointed. Any thoughts on this would be enlightening.

  8. Economic Reasoning

    Take a look at the building that the terriost hit on US soil. The WORLD TRADE CENTER. Yes it was on US soil but the point was to attack the world by taking out its structural image of international economics, but thats another forum. What you need to watch in the RV, first was the government being placed and for it to show that it is functioning effeciently. Next would be the agreement that will be made with Kuwait. This agreement I feel is important due to the amount IRAQ will have to pay Kuwait, unless they can work out a deal on future oil profits? If that deal is made instead of a monetary pay-out, RV will not only be SWEET but rapidly coming. The last is for IRAQ to produce its production of oil per day. They now are projected to produce 2.7 mil barrels a day by february. Multiply that by the price of oil and that will tell you a possible projection of oil profits and when I tell you that this production is only being done with ten percent of the oil fields being surveyed should explain why everyone who knows and understand this opportunity is taking advantage of it. We’re talking 72 trillion dollars off of oil production a year with only ten percent of the land being surveyed. Thats with the price of oil being $73 dollars a barrel as proposed and accepted by their budget. This with the county not being on the international exchange market..

    I must have stated it wrong but I was responding to an earlier statement when I was talking about numbers and the population of IRAQ in my earlier comment. I was trying to point out the ratio of resident in relation to that country’s cirrulation of its currency. Remember the cirrulation of currency is only a factor of a country’s total economic condition.

    The TaLiban is located in Afganistan, not IRAQ. Osam Bin Laden was the one responsible for 9-11 not Sadam Hussain? The US is the foot soliders for the UN. The UN use that as an opportunity to invade IRAQ, over throw it dictator and take over its CASH COW! Man tell me what happens when oil prices go up. Gas gets higher and puts the World Economy in a crunch. And we invaded IRAQ because of weapons of mass destruction? LOOK DEEPER as to the cause and now look at the effects.

    • cannit

      alls i knows is, im sick of the fucken gurus and all that. no one cares what you have to say because we ALL know you’re full of shit. OKIE. G.E.T Team etc. Of course, if you say “tomorrow!!” enough times, one day you’ll be right. But that doesn’t somehow overshadow you being wrong 365 fucking days of the year for 6 years running.. lol You’re just wasting everyones time and emotions. So, unless you have something legit to say, keep your fuckin mouth shut. lol

  9. Pingback: Dinarded Out…. | Dinarded's Dinar Quest

  10. Pingback: Dinarded Out…. | Dinarded's Dinar Quest

  11. Ted

    Good information.. Go RV!

  12. I’ve read this before but I never knew its origin. Nice post. I’d like to put it on my blog sometime if you don’t mind.

  13. The latest intel updates have the theme that a tipping point is here. There were some glitches and other issues to iron out. it seems to be at a fever pitch! http://dinarrv.org/dinar-news-today-tnt-tony-and-okie_oil_man-november-20-2013/

  14. Johnk7

    I really appreciate this post. I have been looking everywhere for this! Thank goodness I found it on Bing. You have made my day! Thx again! efedabebcbke

  15. Johnf346

    I was suggested this blog by my cousin. I’m not sure whether this post is written by him as no one else know such detailed about my difficulty. You are wonderful! Thanks! ddbdkgedffac

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